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• W2972243322 abstract "Freshwater aquatic systems in Australia are being increasingly colonised by invasive species that are having a wide range of social, economic and environmental impacts. The study of the spread of such invasive species is constrained by the inherent difficulties of obtaining relevant data in a timely manner and in conducting critical field experiments. Consequently the modelling of invasion scenarios takes on increased importance in forecasting the potential outcomes of an invasion. This study is a first synthesis of a modelling tool for determining the spread rates of a generalised invasive species in a linear freshwater system. The model consists of a population dynamics model in S-PLUS, which is linked to geographic locations via ArcView GIS. The population dynamics model is a stage/age based, meta-population model and incorporates both environmental and demographic stochasticity. Run from within ArcView, this is a closely coupled modelling system using the S-PLUS for ArcView link software. The relevant spatial data available for river systems is limited to the section length, with the possibility of including further data relevant to establishment. Factors thought to influence recruitment and transport, such as the frequency of floods were incorporated in parameterising the population model. A case study looking at the effect of floods on the spread rates of invasive species along a section of the Murray River was carried out using a hypothetical species, with similar life history characteristics to salvinia, cabomba, alligator weed and parrots feather. Population growth and spread was simulated over 50 years at annual time steps, with a proportion of the population spreading into a downstream section after each time step. The results of the case study found that the larger the initial population size and the more frequent the flood events, the higher the final population size and the faster the rate of spread. The timing of floods in relation to the initial colonisation had little effect on these outcomes. Future model development may include habitat suitability modelling to determine the likelihood of establishment. Upstream dispersal will also be considered, along with river network geometry, as this has been found to influence invasion dynamics." @default.
• W2972243322 created "2019-09-12" @default.
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• W2972243322 date "2005-01-01" @default.
• W2972243322 modified "2023-09-22" @default.
• W2972243322 title "Coupling meta-population models with GIS to predict freshwater biotic invasions" @default.
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