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- W2972664222 abstract "Esophageal fistula is a potentially life-threatening event of treatment for esophageal cancer (EC). We aimed to identify the risk factors and provide a nomogram for the prediction of radiotherapy-related esophageal fistula in patients with EC. Patients with EC who received radiotherapy or chemo-radiotherapy between 2003 and 2017 were retrospectively collected in two institutions. Of these, patients who treated at one institution formed the training cohort (TC) (n = 408), and those at another institution formed the validation cohort (VC) (n = 141). In the TC, 136 patients (cases) who developed esophageal fistula during or after radiotherapy were enrolled and compared with 272 controls (1:2 matched with the diagnosis time of EC, sex, marriage, and race). After the univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses, the independent risk factors were identified and incorporated into a nomogram. Then the nomogram for the risk prediction was externally validated in the VC (47 cases and 94 controls) using bootstrap resampling. The independent factors for esophageal fistula were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS), BMI, T4, N staging and re-radiotherapy in patients with EC. Incorporating these 5 factors, the nomogram achieved a good concordance index of 0.805 (95% CI, 0.762-0.848) in predicting esophageal fistula in TC, and maintained the accuracy of 0.764 (95% CI, 0.683-0.845) in VC. The calibration curves also indicated that the predicted probabilities by the nomogram were good match with the clinical confirmation. We created and externally validated the first risk nomogram for the prediction of esophageal fistula associated with radiotherapy. This tool might be helpful for individualized stratifying the patients with different risk of esophageal fistula and lead to a rational therapeutic choice in patients with EC." @default.
- W2972664222 created "2019-09-19" @default.
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- W2972664222 date "2019-09-01" @default.
- W2972664222 modified "2023-10-02" @default.
- W2972664222 title "Nomogram for Individual Prediction of Radiotherapy-related Esophageal Fistula in Esophageal Cancer" @default.
- W2972664222 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrobp.2019.06.2036" @default.
- W2972664222 hasPublicationYear "2019" @default.
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