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• W2980443951 abstract "Abstract Abnormal excess returns are often used to measure the profitability of analyst recommendations. We study the liquidity of recommended strategies, by modeling the time to payoff. Using an event study methodology, we find that target prices are reached in about 43% of 392 technical calls and 52% of 211 fundamental calls. Accelerated failure time models show that for technical calls, high traded volumes and lower targeted returns led to earlier fulfillment, while a bullish market delayed fulfillment. For fundamental calls, lower targeted returns, a bullish market trend, and overall post-recommendation market movement accounted for earlier fulfillment, with sell recommendations performing slightly better. Extended Summary This paper aims to examine the efficacy of buy and sell recommendations made by technical as well as fundamental analysts in the Indian stock market. Unlike prior studies that have concentrated on target price accuracy or excess returns, we take into consideration the time that the investor has to wait before realizing the profits from trading, or the liquidity of these trading strategies. An event study methodology and survival analysis techniques are used to model the time taken by the stock price to reach the targeted sell /buy price. Our data included 392 recommendations based on technical analysis and 211 recommendations based on fundamental analysis posted on finance portals between January 2011 and April 2015. Target prices were reached in about 43% and 52% of technical and fundamental calls respectively. Accelerated failure time models showed that for technical calls lower targeted returns and higher traded volumes led to earlier fulfillment, while a bullish market trend delayed fulfillment. For fundamental calls, lower targeted returns, a bullish market trend, and overall market movement in the post recommendation period accounted for earlier fulfillment, with sell recommendations performing slightly better than buy recommendations. This study adds to the extant literature on analyst recommendations by addressing the question of liquidity as opposed to returns. We find that analyst recommendations (technical or fundamental) do not yield targeted returns quickly, unless there is an external market movement. Recommendations based on fundamental analysis perform slightly better than those based on technical analysis; and sell recommendations reach their target price quicker than buy recommendations. These findings are similar to other studies on analyst recommendations that have focused on profitability. The managerial implication of this study is that the Indian stock market shows evidence of semi strong efficiency like other developed markets." @default.
• W2980443951 created "2019-10-25" @default.
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• W2980443951 date "2020-06-01" @default.
• W2980443951 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
• W2980443951 title "Time to payoff: Efficacy of analyst recommendations in the Indian stock market" @default.
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• W2980443951 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iimb.2019.10.002" @default.
• W2980443951 hasPublicationYear "2020" @default.
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