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- W2980938845 abstract "The ability to model the course of AD is important for counseling patients and their families, for developing and interpreting clinical trials, and for assessing the economic impact of the disease. This is difficult because of individual heterogeneity in the disease's underlying biological changes. Here we present a validation of our new Grade of Membership (GoM) prediction model. For clinical utility, we focused on using information from only the first visit in generating the model predictions for individual patients with AD. The GoM model was developed using the Predictors 2 dataset (N=229). It incorporates 73 time-varying covariates spanning 11 measurement domains including cognition, functioning, psychiatric symptoms, and motor signs/symptoms. Using the same cohort, we optimized a Cox regression model that predicts time to death. Both models were validated in the Predictors 1 dataset, comprising 252 patients with mild AD at first visit who were followed semi-annually for 10 years. We applied the GoM and Cox models to data from each patient‘s first visit and generated predicted survival functions, using life table analyses to compare predicted and actual survival. The figure displays the actual survival curve for all patients, and the corresponding survival curves predicted from the GoM and Cox models. Both approaches‘ predictions fell well within the confidence intervals around the actual survival curve. We also divided the Predictors 1 patients into quintiles, based on predicted survival under the Cox model. Both approaches‘ predictions generally fell well within the confidence intervals around the actual quintile-specific survival curves." @default.
- W2980938845 created "2019-10-25" @default.
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- W2980938845 date "2019-07-01" @default.
- W2980938845 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
- W2980938845 title "P4-558: VALIDATION OF AN ALGORITHM FOR PREDICTING TIME TO KEY CLINICAL ENDPOINTS IN PATIENTS WITH ALZHEIMER'S DISEASE" @default.
- W2980938845 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jalz.2019.08.105" @default.
- W2980938845 hasPublicationYear "2019" @default.
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