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• W2989006945 startingPage "124067" @default.
• W2989006945 abstract "Abstract Near-constancy of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) facilitates the development of future emission pathways compatible with temperature targets. However, most studies have explored TCRE under scenarios of temperature increase. We used an Earth system model (MIROC-ESM) to examine TCRE in scenarios with increasing and stable CO 2 concentrations, as well as overshoot pathways in which global mean temperatures peak and decline. Results showed that TCRE is stable under scenarios of increasing or stable CO 2 concentration at an atmospheric CO 2 concentration ( p CO 2 ) double the pre-industrial level. However, in the case of overshoot pathways and a stable p CO 2 scenario at a quadrupled p CO 2 level, the TCRE increases by 10%–50%, with large increases over a short period just after p CO 2 starts to decrease. During the period of p CO 2 increase, annual ocean heat uptake (OHU) and ocean carbon storage (C O ) (or cumulative ocean carbon uptake from the start of the experiment) exhibit similar changes, resulting in a stable TCRE. During the p CO 2 decrease period, after a sudden TCRE increase when p CO 2 starts to decrease, the OHU decreases and C O increases (relative to the p CO 2 increase period) balance each other out, resulting in a stable TCRE. In overshoot pathways, the temperature distribution when the global mean temperature anomaly cools to 1.5 °C reveals small warming over land and large warming over the oceans relative to the 1% per annum pCO 2 increasing scenario, particularly in some high-latitude areas of both hemispheres. The increase in TCRE with overshoot pathways decreases the carbon budget for the temperature anomaly targets in such scenarios. Our analysis showed a 16%–35% decrease in the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5 °C global warming target, in comparison with the reference scenario with a 1% per year p CO 2 increase, for pathways peaking at the doubled p CO 2 level followed by decline to the pre-industrial level." @default.
• W2989006945 created "2019-11-22" @default.
• W2989006945 creator A5017088303 @default.
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• W2989006945 date "2019-12-01" @default.
• W2989006945 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W2989006945 title "Increase of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions with decreasing CO 2 concentration scenarios" @default.
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• W2989006945 doi "https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab57d3" @default.
• W2989006945 hasPublicationYear "2019" @default.
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