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• W2993754927 abstract "Describes the forecasting process used at Columbia Gas ... accuracy of Design Day Forecasts and Daily Operational Forecasts is very critical ... both time series and regression models play an important role in forecasting. Columbia Gas of Ohio places great importance on its daily forecasting process and has spent six years developing and improving its current daily forecasting techniques. The daily demand forecasts are used in preparing strategic plans, financial projections, rate case and other regulatory proceedings, distribution system design, gas supply & capacity planning, and operational planning. Columbia's forecasting process has resulted in very small error percentages. In fact, results from a 1995 survey administered by the American Gas Association and Canadian Gas Association found Columbia's forecast accuracy to be among the best in the industry. This article discusses Columbia's forecasting process, historical accuracy of the forecast and two major types of daily forecasts developed at Columbia: Design Day Forecast and Daily Operational Forecast. Columbia Gas of Ohio (Columbia) is one of the five distribution subsidiaries of Columbia Energy Group and is the largest natural gas utility in Ohio having nearly 1.3 million customers in more than 1,000 communities. Columbia Gas of Ohio is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio. During 1999 Columbia delivered 99 BCF to Sales customers and 208 BCF to Transport customers. Columbia Energy Group, based in Herndon, Va., is one of the nation's leading energy services companies, with assets of approximately $7 billion. Its operating companies engage in virtually all phases of the natural gas business, including exploration and production, transmission, storage and distribution, as well as retail energy marketing, propane and petroleum product sales, and electric power generation. TYPES OF DAILY FORECASTS Columbia develops two types of daily forecasts: Design Day Forecast and Daily Operational Forecast. While these forecasts are used for different purposes they are developed from a single consistent forecasting process, which we will describe later. DESIGN DAY FORECAST The Design Day Forecast is primarily used to determine the amount of gas supply, transportation capacity, storage capacity and peaking contracts that Columbia needs to serve its contractually firm and human needs customers. Each year Columbia contracts for a portfolio of monthly, seasonal and annual supply contracts designed to meet the seasonal requirements and Design Day requirements for its firm customers. However, these same supply contracts must have purchasing flexibility for Columbia to respond to actual weather (warm or cold) and operating conditions. Many of the supply and capacity contracts contain a fixed cost (Demand Cost) which is paid regardless of use and a variable cost (Commodity Cost). In establishing supply and capacity levels, it is very important that the Design Day Forecast is accurate. If a company's design forecast is not accurate it may not contract for the proper supply and capacity assets. This could place the company's customers at economic or service risk. Over the past seven years Columbia's Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of the Design Day Forecast has averaged 0.4%. Table 1 shows the annual MAPE for each of the past seven Design Day Forecasts. The Design Day Forecast is based on Columbia's Design Conditions, which consist of the following: Design Current Day Temperature, Design Prior Day Temperature, and Design Wind Speed. DESIGN CONDITIONS Both Design Temperatures are developed based upon the analysis of all available historical weather data going back to 1949. Traditionally, Columbia updates this historical temperature data for analytical purposes approximately every five years. Table 2 shows the Design Temperature and Design Wind Speed for the 4 major geographical areas served by Columbia. …" @default.
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• W2993754927 date "2000-07-01" @default.
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• W2993754927 title "Daily Demand Forecasting at Columbia Gas" @default.
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