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• W2999660386 abstract "Marine disasters have occurred frequently in recent years, causing enormous economic losses. Due to marine disasters, engineers of design standards have focused on rare events with annual exceedance probabilities of 10−4 or even lower. In this paper, the ultra-long return level of wind speed is calculated based on the deductive method, which in turn is based on physical principles and the laws of probability. The data is from the best track dataset for tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific Ocean, and the wind speed is calculated by Cardone's parametric wind model. This wind field model has been verified by 4 observations in this paper. Contrary to the deductive methods used previously, the sample points in the circular sub-region are simulated by a non-homogeneous spatial point Poisson process, which has a better reproducibility. In addition, typhoon parameters are sampled at the time of maximum wind speed instead of the time of the closest approach, which is more consistent with the extremum theory. The comparison of return levels in coastal cities near the South China Sea indicates that the results of this study are the closest to the design codes. Six typical points in the South China Sea are selected to calculate the extreme wind speed. The wind speeds return level in the 10000-year period ranges from 50 to 58 m/s in the South China Sea. In addition, this indicates that the ultra-long return level of wind speed has an increasing trend from southwest to northeast in the South China Sea. In terms of analyzing the uncertainty, it is apparent that the deductive model has a lower uncertainty than the history method." @default.
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• W2999660386 date "2020-02-01" @default.
• W2999660386 modified "2023-10-11" @default.
• W2999660386 title "Ultra-long return level estimation of extreme wind speed based on the deductive method" @default.
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• W2999660386 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.106900" @default.
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