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• W3000761526 abstract "The critical role of macroeconomic and fiscal modelling is well established inboth developed and developing countries. Where quantitative tools areinadequate, macroeconomic management may be undermined, in turnheightening the risk of economic imbalance. Weaknesses in this domainplayed an important part in the economic crises which beset much of Africaduring the 1980s (Tarp 1993). Despite the known limitations of formalmodels, they are useful, if only to make core assumptions explicit and to helpthink through the inherent trade-offs with respect to stability, growth anddevelopment. Even when quantitative tools are simply absent, policy choicesalways refer to some form of implicit model – whether logically consistent ornot. Quantitative tools typically also have a central place in budget management, providing the basis for identifying government financing needs andsetting budget ceilings. In the current environment, robust tools to informpolicy-making are growing in importance. The Economic Commission forAfrica (2005), for example, notes that the forward-planning orientations ofboth MTEFs (Medium Term Expenditure Frameworks) and PRSPs (PovertyReduction Strategy Papers) demand increasingly robust planning tools. Theprospect of scaled-up aid flows represents a further source of pressure onmacroeconomic policy-making.Given the above, it is useful to assess the extent to which modellingapproaches at the country level are adequate to economic managementchallenges. Although one might expect this to be a fairly routine activity, onenotes a distinct lack of published material providing guidance on best practice in macroeconomic and fiscal modelling in developing countries. In otherwords, it is difficult to identify broadly accepted grounds on which countrymodelling practices may be assessed. In response to this gap, an initialobjective of this chapter is to propose a general set of principles for theevaluation of macro-fiscal modelling at the country level. These themes aredeveloped in Section 2, including a brief review of the relevant literature.Based on the authors’ experiences in macro-fiscal modelling in Mozambique,Section 3 applies the framework to this specific case. We find that modellingpractices have improved over recent years. They are, however, at an earlystage of development and a number of weaknesses are obvious. In particular,we note the absence of tools to think through the relationship betweeninvestment (allocation), external resource flows and growth over the mediumterm. In addition, the informality of modelling practices tends to underminetheir consistent use in the policy process. Our evaluation concludes with aconsideration of the deeper factors that may determine improvements inmodelling practices over the near term. Section 4 brings the chapter to aclose.At this point it is useful to clarify the position taken in this chapter. Ourfocus is on the practical side of modelling rather than its theoretical basis.This is not to say that theory is irrelevant. Theoretical positions are fundamental to building and interpreting sound models. However, robust practicalimplementation is a prerequisite to inform policy-making. The point here isthat models can be valid partners at the table in many key fiscal and macroeconomic policy processes (Don 2004). Modelling practices determinewhether quantitative tools are adequate to policy challenges and/or have aclear ‘voice’ at the table. Our interest in macro-fiscal modelling practices thusconcentrates specifically on models used within the government on a regularbasis." @default.
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• W3000761526 date "2009-03-04" @default.
• W3000761526 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W3000761526 title "Macroeconomic modelling: Process and practice" @default.
• W3000761526 doi "https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203881972-19" @default.
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