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- W3010071617 abstract "Abstract By proposing a varying coefficient Susceptible-Infected-Removal model (vSIR), we track the epidemic of COVID-19 in 30 provinces in China and 15 cities in Hubei province, the epicenter of the outbreak. It is found that the spread of COVID-19 has been significantly slowing down within the two weeks from January 27 to February 10th with 87.0% and 84.3% reductions in the reproduction number R 0 among the 30 provinces and 15 Hubei cities, respectively. This suggests the extreme control measures implemented since January 23, which include cutting off Wuhan and many other cities and towns, a great public awareness and high level of self isolation at home, have contributed to a substantial decline in the reproductivity of the COVID-19 in China. We predict that Hubei province will reach its peak between February 20 and 22, 2020, and if the removal rate can be increased to 0.1, the epidemic outside Hubei province will end in May 2020, and inside Hubei in early June." @default.
- W3010071617 created "2020-03-13" @default.
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- W3010071617 date "2020-02-20" @default.
- W3010071617 modified "2023-10-12" @default.
- W3010071617 title "Tracking and Predicting COVID-19 Epidemic in China Mainland" @default.
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- W3010071617 doi "https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.17.20024257" @default.
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