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• W3011264512 abstract "Abstract Background The World Health Organization recommends monitoring Onchocerca volvulus Ov16 serology in children aged &lt;10 years for stopping mass ivermectin administration. Transmission models can help to identify the most informative age groups for serological monitoring and investigate the discriminatory power of serology-based elimination thresholds. Model predictions depend on assumed age-exposure patterns and transmission efficiency at low infection levels. Methods The individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, was used to assess (1) the most informative age groups for serological monitoring using receiver operating characteristic curves for different elimination thresholds under various age-dependent exposure assumptions, including those of ONCHOSIM (another widely used model), and (2) the influence of within-human density-dependent parasite establishment (included in EPIONCHO-IBM but not ONCHOSIM) on positive predictive values for different serological thresholds. Results When assuming EPIONCHO-IBM exposure patterns, children aged &lt;10 years are the most informative for seromonitoring; when assuming ONCHOSIM exposure patterns, 5–14 year olds are the most informative (as published elsewhere). Omitting density-dependent parasite establishment results in more lenient seroprevalence thresholds, even for higher baseline infection prevalence and shorter treatment durations. Conclusions Selecting appropriate seromonitoring age groups depends critically on age-dependent exposure patterns. The role of density dependence on elimination thresholds largely explains differing EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM elimination predictions." @default.
• W3011264512 created "2020-03-23" @default.
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• W3011264512 date "2020-03-16" @default.
• W3011264512 modified "2023-10-17" @default.
• W3011264512 title "Structural Uncertainty in Onchocerciasis Transmission Models Influences the Estimation of Elimination Thresholds and Selection of Age Groups for Seromonitoring" @default.
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• W3011264512 doi "https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiz674" @default.
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