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- W3022165204 abstract "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which causes severe respiratory illness, has become a pandemic. The World Health Organization has declared it a public health crisis of international concern. We developed a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model for COVID-19 to show the importance of estimating the reproduction number (R0). This work is focused on predicting the COVID-19 outbreak in its early stage in India based on an estimation of R0. The developed model will help policymakers to take active measures prior to the further spread of COVID-19. Data on daily newly infected cases in India from March 2, 2020 to April 2, 2020 were to estimate R0 using the earlyR package. The maximum-likelihood approach was used to analyze the distribution of R0 values, and the bootstrap strategy was applied for resampling to identify the most likely R0 value. We estimated the median value of R0 to be 1.471 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.351 to 1.592) and predicted that the new case count may reach 39,382 (95% CI, 34,300 to 47,351) in 30 days." @default.
- W3022165204 created "2020-05-13" @default.
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- W3022165204 date "2020-05-09" @default.
- W3022165204 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W3022165204 title "Estimation of Reproduction Number (Ro) and Early Prediction of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Outbreak in India Using Statistical Computing Approach" @default.
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- W3022165204 doi "https://doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020028" @default.
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