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- W3025897334 abstract "The SIR evolutionary model predicts too sharp a decrease of the fractions ofpeople infected with COVID-19 in France after the start of the nationallockdown, compared to what is observed. I introduce three extensions to thesemodels to fit the daily arrivals in French hospitals, as well in critical care,releases and deaths. These models involve ratios of evolutionary timescales tobranching fractions, assumed uniform throughout a country, and the basicreproduction number, $R_0$, before and during the national lockdown, for eachregion of France. The hospital data are well fit by the models with theexception of the arrivals in critical care, which are found to decrease in timefaster than predicted by all models. This suggests that hospitals have learntover time to better treat COVID-19 patients without resorting to critical care.The basic reproductive factor, averaged over France, was $R_0$=3.4$pm$0.1before the lockdown and 0.65$pm$0.04 (90% c.l.) during it, both with smallregional variations. On 11 May 2020, the Infection Fatality Rate in France is4$pm$1% (90% c.l.) and constant, while the Feverish vastly outnumber theAsymptomatic, contrary to the early phases. Without the lockdown nor socialdistancing, over 2 million deaths from COVID-19 would have occurred throughoutFrance. The fraction of immunized people reached a plateau below 1% throughoutFrance (3% in Paris) by late April 2020 (95% c.l.), suggesting a lack of herdimmunity and that a second wave of the pandemic is possible during the partiallifting of the national lockdown. After the partial lifting of the lockdown, if$R_0$ is as high as 1.5, then a second wave will lead to 60 thousand deaths bymid-July and over a million by October, while if $R_0$ is 1.2 or lower, thepandemic is delayed with deaths rising as late as August, allowing for timelygovernmental response." @default.
- W3025897334 created "2020-05-21" @default.
- W3025897334 creator A5038201313 @default.
- W3025897334 date "2020-05-13" @default.
- W3025897334 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W3025897334 title "Fit of French COVID-19 hospital data with different evolutionary models: regional measures of $R_0$ before and during lockdown" @default.
- W3025897334 hasPublicationYear "2020" @default.
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