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- W3029456435 abstract "Objective To establish an plague risk assessment index system,and to provide a scientific basis for risk assessments and risk management of plague.Methods Preliminary framework and indicators were formulated based on literature review and expert consensus.By Delphi approach,the risk assessment indexes were made into table questionnaire,and expert consultation was conducted.Necessity,sensitivity,operability and relative weight of risk assessment index were scored.Weights were determined by Excel 2007 and SPSS 19.0.Results A preliminary plague risk assessment index system including 7 first class indicators and 17 secondary class indicators was established based on the main factors of plague outbreak.The first class indicators included natural plague foci (5 secondary indicators),etiology of plague (2 secondary indicators),the source of infection(4secondary indicators),the route of infection (2 secondary indicators),susceptible populations (1 secondary indicator),geographical environment (2 secondary indicators),and epidemic dynamic (1 secondary indicator).Expert scores of first class indicators were 7.712 ± 1.337,7.763 ± 1.586,7.927 ± 1.366,7.144 ± 2.138,6.652 ±2.128,5.939 ± 1.991 and 5.580 ± 2.018,respectively; weights were 0.158 3,0.159 3,0.162 7,0.146 6,0.136 5,0.121 9 and 0.114 5,respectively.Conclusion The risk assessment index system and risk management method of plague in China has been basically established.Key words: Plague; Risk assessment; Delphi approach" @default.
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- W3029456435 date "2014-09-20" @default.
- W3029456435 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W3029456435 title "Establishment of a risk assessment indicator system of plague using modified Delphi approach" @default.
- W3029456435 doi "https://doi.org/10.3760/cma.j.issn.2095-4255.2014.05.004" @default.
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