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- W3036956029 endingPage "104200" @default.
- W3036956029 startingPage "104200" @default.
- W3036956029 abstract "To be acceptably safe one must identify the risks one is exposed to and decide what risk reducing measures are required. It is uncertain whether the threat really will materialize, but determining the size and probability of the risk is also full of uncertainty. When performing an analysis and preparing for decision making under uncertainty, quite frequently failure rate data, information on consequence severity or on a probability value, yes, even on the possibility that an event can or cannot occur, is lacking. In those cases, a possible way and sometimes the only way to proceed is to revert to expert judgment. Even in case historical data is available, an expert can be asked whether and to what extent such data still hold in the current situation. Anyhow, expert elicitation comes with an uncertainty depending on the expert's reliability, which becomes very visible when two or more experts give different answers or even conflicting answers. This is not a new problem, and very bright minds have thought how to tackle this in a rational and objective way. But so far, however, the topic has not been given much attention in daily process safety and risk assessment practice. Therefore, this paper has a review and applied character and will present various approaches with detailed explanation and examples." @default.
- W3036956029 created "2020-06-25" @default.
- W3036956029 creator A5034207436 @default.
- W3036956029 creator A5047998865 @default.
- W3036956029 date "2020-07-01" @default.
- W3036956029 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W3036956029 title "How to treat expert judgment? With certainty it contains uncertainty!" @default.
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- W3036956029 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2020.104200" @default.
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