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• W3039682302 endingPage "100849" @default.
• W3039682302 startingPage "100849" @default.
• W3039682302 abstract "Climate change is uncertain and has uncertain effects on the suitabilities of species habitats. Conservation strategies have to take this uncertainty into account. Two concepts for addressing uncertainty are, to make strategies adaptive and robust. Using a stylized ecological-economic model in which a decision maker can allocate a conservation budget between two time periods and two regions, I explore how the cost-effective allocation of the budget depends on ecological and economic parameters, including parameters describing the uncertain dynamics of climate change; and under which circumstances adaptive allocation strategies significantly outperform fixed strategies. Even if an adaptive strategy is politically feasible, its optimisation requires some knowledge about the dynamics of the climate change in the form of statistics like mean and variance of climate parameters. If these statistics are estimated wrong then even an adaptive strategy may fail. To explore the risk of such failure I subject the cost-effective strategies derived in the first part of the analysis to a robustness analysis that, among others, identifies those strategies that are relatively prone to wrong expectations of the climate change. Amongst others, the analysis reveals that flexibility pays only if there is uncertainty in the relative performances of different strategies; and depending on whether substitution between the benefits of the two time periods is allowed or not, the most robust strategy is to concentrate conservation expenses to the first period or to allocate the budget evenly amongst the two time periods, respectively." @default.
• W3039682302 created "2020-07-10" @default.
• W3039682302 creator A5054913296 @default.
• W3039682302 date "2020-08-01" @default.
• W3039682302 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
• W3039682302 title "Conservation management in the face of climatic uncertainty – the roles of flexibility and robustness" @default.
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• W3039682302 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2020.100849" @default.
• W3039682302 hasPublicationYear "2020" @default.
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