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• W304045732 abstract "Massimo Piatelli-Palmarini. Inevitable Illusions: How Mistakes of Reason Rule our Minds. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1994. Imagine that United States must prepare for outbreak of a rare disease that scientists estimate will result in death of 600 people. They propose two alternative programs to combat disease. Assume following scientific estimates of consequences of program: If nation adopts Program A, we will save 200 people. If nation adopts Program B, we have a one-third probability of saving 600 people and a two-thirds probability of saving no one. Which of two programs would you favor? Now consider these two alternative programs: If we adopt Program C, 400 people will die. If we adopt Program D, we have a one-third probability that no one will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die. Which of these two programs would you favor? A statistical analysis of four programs will reveal that all have same expected value of 200 people surviving - only wording differs. Yet that different wording significantly affects choice of most respondents. We generally choose A over B, opting for certainty when choosing between positively worded statements (saving people). We choose D over C, opting for probability when choosing between negative statements (people dying). Most respondents fail to discern statistical equivalence of results. Furthermore, in real world apparent certainties such as programs A or C usually carry a hidden probability unacknowledged by those faced with making such decisions. With puzzles like this, linguist Massimo Piatelli-Palmarini introduces concept of mental that derail our ability to adequately evaluate certain kinds of word-based problems. While this book came out seven years ago, its ideas have great currency. The study of this irrational behavior has given rise to a number of similar books on related subjects, most notably Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes - And How to Correct Them: Lessons from New Science of Behavioral Economics by Belsky and Gilovich. The idea that we have some built-in bias that operates against rational action has captured attention of a wide variety of researchers around world. According to Piatelli-Palmarini, these biases or tunnels allow certain kinds of problems to fool our rational centers in same way that optical illusions can trick our visual processing centers. In other words, our brain wiring sets us up to make mistakes when presented with verbal puzzles or optical tricks. For an optical example, he states on one page that width at base of well-know arch in St. Louis exactly matches its height. On next page, he shows a picture of that arch. I suspect that very few readers can believe his assertion after seeing picture. As he points out the eye sees what it sees, even when we know what we know. Just as eye leads us astray in certain predictable ways, Piatelli-- Palmarini contends, so our brain can fool us into believing that we have knowledge we don't have or that we have sufficiently analyzed a situation to trust an ad hoc solution. He builds his case for existence of these tunnels with word problems carefully designed to take advantage of apparently faulty wiring that we use to figure things out. …" @default.
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• W304045732 title "Inevitable Illusions: How Mistakes of Reason Rule Our Minds" @default.
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