FRINK Linked Data Fragments server

Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W3045947152> ?p ?o ?g. }

• W3045947152 endingPage "800" @default.
• W3045947152 startingPage "796" @default.
• W3045947152 abstract "Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1-3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature signals, dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation are very uncertain4. This leads to low confidence in regional projections, especially for precipitation, over the coming decades5,6. The chaotic nature of the climate system7-9 may also mean that signal uncertainties are largely irreducible. However, climate projections are difficult to verify until further observations become available. Here we assess retrospective climate model predictions of the past six decades and show that decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate are highly predictable, despite a lack of agreement between individual model simulations and the poor predictive ability of raw model outputs. Crucially, current models underestimate the predictable signal (the predictable fraction of the total variability) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (the leading mode of variability in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation) by an order of magnitude. Consequently, compared to perfect models, 100 times as many ensemble members are needed in current models to extract this signal, and its effects on the climate are underestimated relative to other factors. To address these limitations, we implement a two-stage post-processing technique. We first adjust the variance of the ensemble-mean North Atlantic Oscillation forecast to match the observed variance of the predictable signal. We then select and use only the ensemble members with a North Atlantic Oscillation sufficiently close to the variance-adjusted ensemble-mean forecast North Atlantic Oscillation. This approach greatly improves decadal predictions of winter climate for Europe and eastern North America. Predictions of Atlantic multidecadal variability are also improved, suggesting that the North Atlantic Oscillation is not driven solely by Atlantic multidecadal variability. Our results highlight the need to understand why the signal-to-noise ratio is too small in current climate models10, and the extent to which correcting this model error would reduce uncertainties in regional climate change projections on timescales beyond a decade." @default.
• W3045947152 created "2020-08-03" @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5001382204 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5004092828 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5005648803 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5006890067 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5009219680 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5014080406 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5014167586 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5016655930 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5018829923 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5022199034 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5025370400 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5025502249 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5026430590 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5027885289 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5029236501 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5032407680 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5033121109 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5042268434 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5042955884 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5044503361 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5046318913 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5049824040 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5052953163 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5053472147 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5062725269 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5064125034 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5064167911 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5067235605 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5069994847 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5070844604 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5072798226 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5073806842 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5077181632 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5079852211 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5081992122 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5083446207 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5085075952 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5086129851 @default.
• W3045947152 creator A5087890874 @default.
• W3045947152 date "2020-07-29" @default.
• W3045947152 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
• W3045947152 title "North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply" @default.
• W3045947152 cites W1480551390 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W1637748895 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W1835770454 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W1864641461 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W1893342066 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W1968176769 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W1982418161 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W1984514794 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W1988224732 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W1989839776 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W1996653992 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W1998866933 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2007239292 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2010690624 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2021057500 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2021510303 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2024966118 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2031605732 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2034268049 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2039413544 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2053693629 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2053831820 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2055192091 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2081081015 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2088552761 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2119814080 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2131477567 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2134634125 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2136912209 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2154470719 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2164094029 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2180011200 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2242446634 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2536941549 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2538529636 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2560430880 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2565258184 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2595276900 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2600487287 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2607361105 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2608275131 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2624053569 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2624573876 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2758801652 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2768646661 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2774326284 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2780318220 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2790546927 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2794001696 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2794629718 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2811161607 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2813010062 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2833058176 @default.
• W3045947152 cites W2897618849 @default.

• next