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- W3090623380 abstract "None of the polls predicted the winner of the 2019 Australian election, the first such failure since 1993 when all the polls started reporting a two-party preferred (2PP) vote estimate of the vote share as well as the parties’ first preferences. But the idea that the polls had enjoyed a very good run until 2019 is misleading: from 1993 to 2016, a fifth had predicted the wrong winner. This paper examines the performance of the polls against several measures: the outcome; margins of error; size of the errors; and estimates of the gap between the Liberal-National Party (LNP) and Labor. It shows that about a third of the estimates of the 2PP vote, Labor’s first preferences, and the LNP’s first preferences, involved errors greater than those attributable to sampling error." @default.
- W3090623380 created "2020-10-08" @default.
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- W3090623380 date "2020-09-30" @default.
- W3090623380 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
- W3090623380 title "How good are the polls? Australian election predictions, 1993–2019" @default.
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- W3090623380 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/10361146.2020.1825616" @default.
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