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• W3095628657 abstract "Abstract Understanding past and projected drought patterns across Central America’s ‘Dry Corridor’ (CADC) is crucial for adaptation planning and impact mitigation, especially in small-scale agricultural communities. We analyzed historical and predicted drought patterns in the CADC by calculating Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values from local rain gauge records, reanalysis data and a 20-member ensemble of bias-corrected, downscaled CMIP-5 GCMs at both seasonal (3 month) and annual (12 month) scales. Trends in drought frequency, duration, intensity were assessed for three, 30 year future periods compared to historical values. Our results suggest a decrease in mean annual rainfall of 8%–14% in the CADC under moderate to high emissions scenarios, respectively, by end-of-century (2071–2100) relative to a historical baseline (1950–2005). However, projected changes to drought characteristics under these scenarios are more pronounced, with seasonal-scale droughts projected to lengthen by 12%–30%, intensify by 17%–42% and increase in frequency by 21%–24% by end-of-century. Annual-scale, longer-term droughts are projected to lengthen by 68% under moderate emissions, potentially triple in length under high emissions and to intensify by 27%–74%. These results were similar yet slightly more pronounced for some drought metrics when just considering rainy/cropping season months (May–Oct). End-of-century changes to rainfall reliability and drought occurrence such as these would severely impact millions of vulnerable inhabitants in the CADC and should be considered in adaptation policymaking efforts." @default.
• W3095628657 created "2020-11-09" @default.
• W3095628657 creator A5064850813 @default.
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• W3095628657 date "2020-12-18" @default.
• W3095628657 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
• W3095628657 title "Meteorological droughts are projected to worsen in Central America’s dry corridor throughout the 21st century" @default.
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• W3095628657 doi "https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc5e2" @default.
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