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• W3103841750 abstract "Abstract This chapter provides an overview of how climate change is affecting the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) and the likely impact on future climate and water availability in the Basin. The MDB has warmed by around 1 degree since 1910 and will continue to warm (by 0.6–1.5°C in 2030 relative to 1995 and by 0.9–2.5°C in 2050 without mitigation), with more hot days and fewer cold days. The warmer climate and higher potential evapotranspiration will increase the demand for water in agriculture, urban centres, and by water-dependent ecosystems. Climate change will therefore increase the gap between water demand and water supply in regions that will become drier. The cool season across much of the MDB in the past several decades has been persistently drier than the long-term average. This decline in cool season rainfall has been, at least in part, attributed to changes in global circulation in a warmer world, predominantly the expansion of the Hadley cell pushing the winter storm tracks south of the Australian land mass. This decline in cool season rainfall has been amplified in the unprecedented decline in runoff, particularly in the southern Basin where most of the runoff occurs in winter and early spring. Climate change projections indicate that the MDB is likely to be drier in the future, although there is considerable uncertainty in the future rainfall projections, which is amplified in the future runoff projections. Recent hydrological modelling studies show a median projected decrease in mean annual runoff of 14% in the southern MDB (10–90 percentile range − 38% to + 8%) by 2046–75 under the medium warming scenario. In the northern MDB the median projection has a decline in mean annual runoff of 10% (range − 38% to + 21%). The interannual and decadal variability of river flows in the MDB will remain high with sequences of many dry years and many wet years, but the likely decline or downward shift in the long-term average runoff will result in longer and more severe dry spells. The median projected decline in annual runoff is similar to the volume of water returned to the environment under the Basin Plan (around 3000 GL). The large uncertainty in future runoff projections presents challenges for the management and long-term planning of the Basin, which will need to assess the risk and reward versus the cost of adaptation options. The current Basin Plan is seeking to improved management of overallocated water resources and balancing competing demands but must also consider the risk from climate change. The extreme dry end of projections would threaten agriculture production, ecosystems, and rural communities and would require transformative adaptation and solutions." @default.
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• W3103841750 date "2021-01-01" @default.
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• W3103841750 title "Climate change in the Murray–Darling Basin" @default.
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• W3103841750 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-818152-2.00012-7" @default.
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