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- W3108129062 abstract "The concept of demographic transition suggested by F.W. Notestein and the forecasts of population growth based on it are dubious, generate superfluous social optimism, and impede taking birth control measures. The civilizational crisis, predicted by E. Odum and other authors of global models and concepts of the development of the biosphere is unavoidable. Time has been lost. Numerical experiments using the model «World-2 MathCad» have shown the possibility of a cyclical development of the civilization. These cycles are caused by the deficiency of food resources and the pollution of the environment. The number of the cycles is determined by the amount of non-renewable resources. In the scenario of the spontaneous development of civilization, the demographic transition consists of 13 phases. When the development is regulated, the number of phases decreases to seven. In this case, the transition to the steady development of civilization occurs according to the logistic model of population growth." @default.
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- W3108129062 date "2020-12-02" @default.
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- W3108129062 title "НОВАЯ КОНЦЕПЦИЯ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОГО ПЕРЕХОДА" @default.
- W3108129062 doi "https://doi.org/10.24855/biosfera.v12i4.557" @default.
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