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• W3113704489 abstract "In this article, a model for pandemic risk and two stochastic extensions is proposed. It is designed for actuarial valuation of insurance plans providing healthcare and death benefits. The core of our approach relies on a deterministic model that is an efficient alternative to the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) method. This model explains the evolution of the first waves of COVID-19 in Belgium, Germany, Italy and Spain. Furthermore, it is analytically tractable for fair pure premium calculation. In a first extension, we replace the time by a gamma stochastic clock. This approach randomizes the timing of the epidemic peak. A second extension consists of adding a Brownian noise and a jump process to explain the erratic evolution of the population of confirmed cases. The jump component allows for local resurgences of the epidemic." @default.
• W3113704489 created "2021-01-05" @default.
• W3113704489 creator A5067555843 @default.
• W3113704489 date "2020-12-23" @default.
• W3113704489 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
• W3113704489 title "An Actuarial Approach for Modeling Pandemic Risk" @default.
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• W3113704489 doi "https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9010003" @default.
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