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• W3121297545 abstract "This paper studies optimal monetary policy in an environment where policy actions provide a signal of economic fundamentals to imperfectly informed agents. I derive the optimal discretionary policy in closed form and show that, in contrast to the perfect information case, the signaling channel leads the policymaker to be tougher on in‡ation. The strength of the signaling eect of policy depends on relative uncertainty levels. As the signaling eect strengthens, the optimal policy under discretion approaches that under commitment to a forward-looking linear rule, thereby decreasing the stabilization bias. This contributes to the central bank …nding it optimal to withhold its additional information from private agents. Under a general linear policy rule, in‡ation and output forecasts can respond positively to a positive interest rate surprise when the signaling channel is strong. This positive response is the opposite of what standard perfect information New Keynesian models predict and it matches empirical patterns found by Romer and Romer (2000) and Campbell, Evans, Fisher, and Justiniano (2012). In addition, I substantiate the existence of a signaling channel by providing new empirical evidence supporting the predicted interaction between uncertainty and the responses of in‡ation forecasts to interest rate surprises." @default.
• W3121297545 created "2021-02-01" @default.
• W3121297545 creator A5065022271 @default.
• W3121297545 date "2015-04-29" @default.
• W3121297545 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W3121297545 title "Uncertainty and the Signaling Channel of Monetary Policy" @default.
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