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• W3121384569 abstract "This paper examines the channels through which ageing will shape the main economic factors that in turn affect potential growth; identifies current policy settings that may in fact amplify the adverse impact of demographic trends; and sets out policy reforms that will work to temper the effects of ageing on growth. The paper begins with a brief discussion of demographic issues. The analysis first focuses on the impact of these trends on the future level and structure of consumption, which may affect aggregate saving and the structure of the economy, respectively. Then, it explores the main channels through which ageing affects the supply side of the economy following a production function approach: capital markets, labour markets and productivity. The empirical analysis focuses on a subset of large OECD countries with differing ageing patterns and generosity of pension systems. Using a simple general equilibrium overlapping generations model and considering alternative reform scenarios, some illustrative simulations are presented decomposing the effects of ageing on potential GDP per capita growth and economic convergence within OECD countries. Effets du vieillissement sur la demande, les marches des facteurs de production et la croissance Cette etude examine les canaux par lesquels le vieillissement de la population est susceptible d'affecter l'economie et la croissance potentielle. Elle identifie les dispositifs actuels qui pourraient amplifier les effets negatifs induits par les tendances demographiques et analyse les reformes pouvant limiter ces effets. L'etude commence par une breve discussion relative aux evolutions demographiques. Leur effet sur le niveau et la structure de la consommation est ensuite analyse, ainsi que leur impact sur le niveau d'epargne agrege et la structure de l'economie. L'effet sur l'offre est analyse suivant une approche de type fonction de production: marches des capitaux, du travail et productivite. L'analyse empirique se concentre sur un sousensemble de grands pays de l'OCDE qui different par leurs profils de vieillissement et par la generosite de leurs systemes de pension. Utilisant un modele simple d'equilibre general avec des generations imbriquees et des scenarios alternatifs de reforme, l'etude presente des simulations illustrant l'impact du vieillissement sur le PIB potentiel par tete et la convergence economique entre pays de l'OCDE." @default.
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• W3121384569 title "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth" @default.
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• W3121384569 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.700064" @default.
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