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• W3121659049 abstract "Abstract: This paper analyzes the possible incidence of pending Croatian EU accession that is to take place on the 1st of July 2013, on the labour migration from Croatia to the European Union. We apply panel data estimators using the data on emigration from 18 EU countries into Germany (which is the EU country with the largest share of ex-Yugoslav and Croatian migrants) in order to construct possible scenarios of Croatian migration to the EU.Three scenarios of migration - pessimistic, realistic and optimistic - are drawn and the sensitivity of estimated coefficients on migration from Croatia into Germany during next 25 years is further discussed in detail. We conclude that, similarly to hypothetical Turkish accession, Croatian EU accession is not going to cause massive migration inflows.Keywords: international migration, EU enlargement, Croatia, panel data, seemingly unrelated regressions(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)BackgroundCroatia is the second post-Yugoslav country, after Slovenia, and the first from the Western Balkans to gain a free pass for the EU membership. The accession is scheduled to take place on 1st July 2013 {editors' note: meanwhile Croatia became a part of EU on 1st July). This means the EU integration process took 10 years since Croatia's application for joining the EU was filed in 2003.The accession negotiations lasted until June 2011 due to tough reforms required by the EU. Moreover, the talks were frozen in 2009 for 10 months because of the border dispute with Slovenia over the course of the maritime border on the Piran Bay (see for example Jovic, 2006, Schimmelfennig, 2008; Zupaniie and Hribernik, 2011). The Treaty of Accession was signed by the 27 EU Member States and Croatia in December 2011.On the 22nd of January 2012 a referendum on EU accession was held in Croatia with 66 percent voting in favour of joining the EU. This paved the way for the Member States to ratify the treaty in their national legal systems. As of March 2013, 19 countries have deposited the signed treaty, whereas Denmark, Germany and Slovenia have not started the procedure in their parliaments. Again, the main issue that could potentially threaten Croatia's membership is Slovenia's refusal to ratify the accession, which is caused by a dispute over Croatian citizens' deposits taken over by the Bank of Lj ubljana after the collapse of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. However, it is very likely a compromise will be reached in the weeks to come.The accession of Croatia will be incomparably less visible from the EU's point of view in comparison to the previous enlargements from 2004 and 2007. The political benefits of the accession will be more evident on Croatia's side, although for the general image of the EU the enlargement means that this organisation is attractive for the third-party countries. Still, Croatia's membership will not essentially change the functioning of the Union. This is mainly because of the small socio-economic potential of the country (Vass and Alexe, 2012; or Zornaczuk, 2013). This is also reflected in the small institutional capacity of Croatia.Nevertheless, Croatia's membership may have relevance to some EU policies. Most of all, this country will be active in the EU enlargement policy, especially in the Western Balkans. This accession changes the perspectives in the region as Croatia will assume the role of a bridge between the Union and the Balkans. This is because of the priorities of this country's foreign policy, the recent experience of the accession negotiations and the socio-cultural ties with the region. Hence, the EU enlargement policy seems to be the area where the activities of Croatia - due to its geopolitical location - will be mostly visible. For the same reason this country may have ambitions to play a more important role in building European energy security. This may be evidenced by the plans to construct an LNG terminal, Adria, and some other projects, including a connection to the South Stream gas pipeline. …" @default.
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• W3121659049 date "2013-09-01" @default.
• W3121659049 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
• W3121659049 title "Eu Enlargement and Migration: Scenarios of Croatian Accession" @default.
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