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• W3121684448 abstract "D. Expectations Baseline An expectations baseline reflects what is expected to occur in the future. The object here is the law as it is expected to be. The future is not some undifferentiated mass of possibilities. There are more and less likely outcomes. In short, there is an expected path, even if it may be an uncertain one. When expectations are invoked, this immediately raises the question of whose expectations. Here, I mean to refer to what is objectively the central estimate of the future path of the budget. That is, some predictions should be better than others--with smaller errors and less bias relative to what actually occurs. Admittedly, identifying the best projection is no small feat. Perhaps it would be delivered by some combination of nonpartisan budget experts, whether at official government agencies like CBO or at independent think tanks, that closely watch budget developments and on which policymakers, the press, and the public rely. But the point is that I do not mean expectations to refer to anyone's subjective expectations of the course of the budget irrespective of the likely accuracy of the guess. This expectations baseline has the potential to offer considerable information. As suggested earlier, the expected effects of policies should matter to both policy making and private sector planning. (123) The 2001 and 2003 tax cuts were expected to have a very different effect than the one actually stated in law. (124) At the time, they were expected to be continued at least in significant part. (125) Thus, that expectation should have informed the decision to enact them. Perhaps less obviously, the expectations baseline can prove useful in setting the policy agenda, establishing political accountability, and enforcing budget rules. (126) In terms of agenda setting, the most relevant information is the question of what would happen if an issue is not brought onto the agenda as of now--information provided by what I call the low priority baseline. And the low priority baseline can actually be conceptualized as a particular type of expectations baseline. It is what is expected to occur, contingent on policymakers not paying much attention to an area. In terms of political accountability, it seems particularly relevant to look at the expected course on which policymakers have set us (what I described earlier as the post-policy baseline) and to compare that with the expected course before policymakers took over (the pre-policy baseline). Finally, in terms of budget enforcement, using a baseline that better reflects expectations can potentially avoid certain kinds of gamesmanship. Whereas a pure current law baseline can lead policymakers to enact temporary legislation and claim that it costs less than its actual expected effect, (127) an expectations baseline avoids this gaming. Furthermore, the baseline can be used to enforce targets in terms of overall projected budgetary outcomes (deficit and debt levels), (128) unlike a current law baseline, which is useless for such purposes. To be clear, setting an expectations baseline involves its own share of speculation. There is the actual technical question of how to estimate the expected policies in the face of uncertainty. The method would likely be some probabilistically weighted average of various policies, interacted with economic factors. In practice, that may prove complicated across the full range of the budget. Another possibility is a projection of the most likely set of policy outcomes, which is not necessarily the same thing but may still provide similarly useful information. The long-term fiscal challenge generally, and the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts specifically, highlight the issue of uncertainty. The strong expectation of experts and markets is that the government will finance itself without defaulting on its debt. (129) By this I mean the expectation is that taxes will eventually be raised and spending cut in some combination that is sufficient to balance the government's books--or, more technically, sufficient so that the federal government fits within its long-term budget constraint. …" @default.
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• W3121684448 date "2015-10-01" @default.
• W3121684448 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W3121684448 title "Basing Budget Baselines" @default.
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