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• W3121893821 abstract "Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to mine variables of interest from available data, followed by the inclusion of those variables into an econometric framework, with the objective of estimating causal effects. Recent work highlights that, because the predictions from machine learning models are inevitably imperfect, econometric analyses based on the predicted variables are likely to suffer from bias due to measurement error. We propose a novel approach to mitigate these biases, leveraging the ensemble learning technique known as the random forest. We propose employing random forest not just for prediction, but also for generating instrumental variables to address the measurement error embedded in the prediction. The random forest algorithm performs best when comprised of a set of trees that are individually accurate in their predictions, yet which also make different mistakes, i.e., have weakly correlated prediction errors. A key observation is that these properties are closely related to the relevance and exclusion requirements of valid instrumental variables. We design a data-driven procedure to select tuples of individual trees from a random forest, in which one tree serves as the endogenous covariate and the other trees serve as its instruments. Simulation experiments demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach in mitigating estimation biases, and its superior performance over an alternative method (simulation-extrapolation), which has been suggested by prior work as a reasonable method of addressing the measurement error problem." @default.
• W3121893821 created "2021-02-01" @default.
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• W3121893821 date "2019-01-01" @default.
• W3121893821 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W3121893821 title "Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem" @default.
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• W3121893821 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3339983" @default.
• W3121893821 hasPublicationYear "2019" @default.
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