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• W3122377049 abstract "Abstract We use regression analysis to assess the potential welfare impacts in rural Indonesia of two types of shock: a delay in monsoon onset; and a significant shortfall in rain during the 90-day post-onset period. Focusing on households with family farm businesses, we find that a delay in monsoon onset does not have a significant effect on the welfare of rice farmers. However, rice farm households located in areas exposed to low rainfall following the monsoon are negatively affected. Such households appear to be able to protect their food expenditure in the face of weather shocks, but at the expense of their non-food expenditure. We also use propensity score matching to identify community programs that might moderate the impact of this type of shock. We find that access to credit and public works projects has the strongest moderating effect. This is an important consideration for the design and implementation of adaptation strategies. Keywords: welfarerainfall shockssocial protectionagriculturerice Acknowledgements We wish to thank Will Martin, Syud Amer Ahmed, William Wallace and two anonymous referees for useful comments on an earlier version of this paper. The findings, interpretations and conclusions are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its executive directors or the countries they represent. Notes 1Adapting projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to local conditions, Naylor et al. (Citation2007) predicted that the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset would increase from 9–18% at the time the study was undertaken to 30–40% by 2050. Combined with increased temperatures, such a delay could reduce rice and soybean yields by as much as 10%. 2Vulnerability is usually taken to mean the likelihood that, at a given point in time, individual welfare will fall short of some socially acceptable benchmark (Hoddinott and Quisumbing Citation2008). 3Hoddinott and Quisumbing (Citation2008) make essentially the same point, noting that, at the household level, vulnerability is determined by the nature of the shock, the availability of additional sources of income, the functioning of labour, credit and insurance markets, and the extent of public assistance. 4A poverty certificate (Surat Keterangan Tidak Mampu) allows holders to get free treatment at hospitals and clinics. It is issued by local authorities to certify a household's poverty status. 5See Abadie and Imbens (Citation2002) and Abadie et al. (Citation2004) for details. 6The spatial deflator used is the ratio of the local poverty line (provincial, urban/rural area) to the Jakarta poverty line, in December 2000 prices. Thus, the deflator converts the local December 2000 values into Jakarta December 2000 values. 7Imputed values for missing data were provided by Centre Européen de Recherche et d'Enseignement des Géosciences de l'Environnement. 8We also attempted to extend the analysis to farmers for whom rice was the most valuable crop, but the data thinned out, precluding application of the approach to this sub-sample." @default.
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• W3122377049 date "2012-11-20" @default.
• W3122377049 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
• W3122377049 title "Too little too late: welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia" @default.
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• W3122377049 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2012.728638" @default.
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