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• W3123041671 abstract "Introduction and summary In April 2009, the world economy appeared to be in a free fall. Global trade in goods and services had fallen 15.8 percent over the final two quarters of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. (1) This world trade collapse had been the largest three-quarter decline of the past 40 years. Five months earlier, in November 2008, leaders of the Group of Twenty (G-20)--20 large economies that make up roughly 85 percent of the world's economic activity (2)--had met in Washington, DC, and pledged to stabilize the world financial system and improve coordination of macroeconomic responses to the global financial crisis. (3) Despite monetary easing and fiscal stimulus in many economies, real economic activity continued to deteriorate over the next few months. Reconvening in April 2009 in London, the G-20 leaders had a full agenda, which included the following topics: the role of fiscal stimulus to promote recovery; the reform of banking and financial regulation; and the strengthening of the Intemational Monetary Fund and the multilateral development banks (MDBs), such as the World Bank Group. In addition, even though the world was in the midst of unprecedented global financial crisis, the problem of international trade was unusually prominent on the agenda. Among the commitments made by the G-20 in London, two directly addressed international trade. First, leaders promised to ensure availability of at least $250 billion over the next two years to support trade finance through our export credit and investment agencies and through the MDBs. (4) Second, they reaffirmed a commitment made at the earlier Washington, DC, summit to refrain from raising new barriers to trade in goods and services. Finally, as part of the general strategy to restore economic growth, they pointed out that an unprecedented and concerted fiscal among the member economies would total $5 trillion by the end of 2010. (5) If declining trade simply reflected declining economic activity, this fiscal expansion would be expected to have important impact on global trade. Previous work (6) has documented what many economists now refer to as the Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09, and has analyzed its potential causes. In this article, we review not only the unprecedented collapse of world trade in 2008--09, but also the equally dramatic trade recovery that took place in 2009-10. We look at these events in a historical context, by comparing them to previous trade contractions and recoveries. To gain a better understanding of the links between trade and broader economic conditions, we look at changes in the trade-to-gross-domestic-product (GDP) ratios of major economies across the globe before, during, and after the Great Trade Collapse. Then, we discuss three primary hypotheses that explain the trade collapse: 1) a decline in aggregate demand for all goods; 2) difficulties in obtaining trade finance; and 3) rising trade barriers. We consider how three distinct policy actions--fiscal stimulus, funding for trade finance, and a commitment to refrain from trade barriers--might have affected both the collapse and the subsequent recovery. Finally, we review four prominent examples from the large literature examining the contributing factors to the recent collapse of global trade. Determining the relative degree to which the various demand- and supply-side factors contributed to the Great Trade Collapse is important for formulating the optimal policy response. Economists would like to determine if there are market failures or counterproductive policies specific to trade that the government can or should correct. If research finds that weak domestic demand (resulting from falling consumer income, stronger preferences for saving over consumption, or high unemployment) is the prime cause of the sharp fall in trade, then there is not a clear mandate for government intervention except, perhaps, actions to address the overall recession. …" @default.
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• W3123041671 date "2011-06-22" @default.
• W3123041671 modified "2023-09-28" @default.
• W3123041671 title "Understanding the Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09 and the Subsequent Trade Recovery" @default.
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