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• W3123222808 startingPage "102" @default.
• W3123222808 abstract "We begin by providing observational evidence that the probability of encountering very high and very low annual tropical rainfall has increased significantly in the recent decade (1998-present) as compared to the preceding warming era (1979-1997). These changes over land and ocean are spatially coherent and comprise of a rearrangement of very wet regions and a systematic expansion of dry zones. While the increased likelihood of extremes is consistent with a higher average temperature during the pause (as compared to 1979-1997), it is important to note that the periods considered are also characterized by a transition from a relatively warm to cold phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To further probe the relation between contrasting phases of ENSO and extremes in accumulation, a similar comparison is performed between 1960-1978 (another extended cold phase of ENSO) and the aforementioned warming era. Though limited by land-only observations, in this cold-to-warm transition, remarkably, a near-exact reversal of extremes is noted both statistically and geographically. This is despite the average temperature being higher in 1979-1997 as compared to 1960-1978. Taken together, we propose that there is a fundamental mode of natural variability, involving the waxing and waning of extremes in accumulation of global tropical rainfall with different phases of ENSO." @default.
• W3123222808 created "2021-02-01" @default.
• W3123222808 creator A5024508853 @default.
• W3123222808 creator A5041666126 @default.
• W3123222808 date "2015-09-09" @default.
• W3123222808 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W3123222808 title "Waxing and waning of observed extreme annual tropical rainfall" @default.
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• W3123222808 doi "https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2633" @default.
• W3123222808 hasPublicationYear "2015" @default.
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