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- W3123299429 abstract "This chapter examines the persistence of unemployment by drawing from John Maynard Keynes' two central ideas. The first idea is that any unemployment rate can persist as an equilibrium. The second is that the unemployment rate that prevails is determined by animal spirits. The chapter introduces a three-equation monetary model termed “Farmer monetary model,” which replaces the New Keynesian Phillips curve with a belief function that describes how agents form expectations of future nominal income. The chapter builds and estimates the Farmer monetary model using U.S. data for the period from the first quarter of 1952 to the fourth quarter of 2007. It compares the Farmer monetary model to a New Keynesian model by computing the posterior odds ratio. It shows that the posterior odds favor the Farmer monetary model and concludes by discussing the implications of this finding for fiscal and monetary policy." @default.
- W3123299429 created "2021-02-01" @default.
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- W3123299429 date "2013-12-31" @default.
- W3123299429 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W3123299429 title "7. Animal Spirits, Persistent Unemployment, and the Belief Function" @default.
- W3123299429 doi "https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400846450.251" @default.
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