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• W3123373239 abstract "ABSTRACTDining the past decade China has emerged as South Africa' largest trade partner. In an effort to understand this important and remarkable trend, we estimate South Africa's import demand function with China over the period 1993-2012. Specifying an error-correction model, we use the bounds testing approach of Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) and find evidence of long-run cointegration among the variables. Our long-run elasticity estimates suggest that income is the most important factor in the determination of South Africa's imports from China. Interestingly, the effect of the real relative price is positive, but this counterintuitive result is consistent with evidence from other middle-income countries. These combined factors imply that the South African trade deficit with China will continue to widen despite a real depreciation of the rand.JEL: F10, F14KEYWORDS: South Africa, China, Bilateral Trade, Elasticities, Cointegration(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)INTRODUCTIONIn October 2000 South Africa, China and forty-three other African countries launched the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), marking the beginning of modern China's turn towards Africa. During that year South Africa's imports from China, in real dollars, were valued at $1.24 billion, representing 3.68% of all imports. By 2012 imports from China increased more than tenfold to $13.9 billion, representing 15% of all imports (IMF, 2013; Cakir and Kabundi, 2013). This remarkable growth in the bilateral trade relationship between South Africa and China is but one of many indicators of China's increasing economic commitment to trade and invest in African countries, and it is emblematic of the emergence of significant South-South trade within the trade pattern (Nayyar, 2008; Hanson, 2012).China formalized its approach to go global as part of its tenth five-year plan in 2001, the same year it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). Although the subject of continued debate, China's engagement with the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is informed by its own development experience, and it is characterized by a belief in mutual benefits and noninterference in countries' domestic policies (Ncube and Fairbanks, 2012; Aguillar, 2009; Brautigam, 2008, Taylor, 2006). These relationships are multifaceted, involving and affecting investment (Cheung, Haan, Qian and Yu, 2013; Sanfilippo, 2010; Kaplinsky and Morris, 2009), aid (Brautigam, 2008), migration (Mohan and Tan-Mullins, 2009), politics (Flores-Macias and Kreps, 2012; Hanusch, 2012), economic growth (Diaw and Lessona, 2013; Baliamoune-Lutz, 2011) and trade (Tran, Diaw and Rieber, 2012; De Grauwe, 2012, Montinari and Prodi, 2011; Ademola, Bankoie and Adewayi, 2009; Giovanni and Sanfilippo, 2009).Yet Sub-Saharan Africa constitutes a diverse collection of economies, with distinct resources, populations, histories and economic structures. Consequentially, country-level studies provide an important level of detail and specificity that undermines sweeping generalizations. South Africa is SSA's largest and most diversified economy, is China's largest African trading partner, and has joined China in the increasingly relevant BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) group of nations. This underscores the necessity of studying the drivers of the South Africa-China trade relationship to provide important insights into the effectiveness of trade and currency policies between the two countries. Using quarterly data from 1993Q1 to 2012Q4, we adopt an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework and test for a cointegrating relationship using the bounds test of Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) and Pesaran and Shin (1999). The estimation results indicate that the dramatic increase in South African imports from China is strongly associated with economic growth over the past decade and has persisted despite adverse relative price movements. …" @default.
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• W3123373239 title "South Africa's Import Demand Function with China: A Cointegration Approach" @default.
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