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- W3123586397 abstract "One of the more optimistic, if obscure, propositions about democracy is Condorcet's jury theorem (CJT). The theorem establishes that under certain conditions a majority of a group, with limited information about a pair of alternatives, is more likely to choose the better alternative than any one member of the group. The theorem thus provides a mathematical basis for majority-rule voting and potentially gives an important clue to our understanding of the strength of democratic government. Yet CJT makes two overly restrictive assumptions: it assumes that individuals vote independently and that they share a common goal. Clearly, the assumptions preclude any application of the theorem to democratic politics. Not surprisingly, Black (1963, 163) ruled that the theorem offers truly . . . an unpromising start. Recently, interest in the theorem was revived by Miller (1986), who permits voters to have conflicting goals; and by Grofman and Feld (1988), who link it with Rousseau's general will. Miller (1986) and Grofman and Feld (1988), however, retain the assumption of independence. ' In this paper, I generalize CJT for correlated votes and offer an analytical basis for free speech. Moreover, I apply the generalized theorem to organization theory: who should a chief executive choose as advisers? The main results of the paper are summarized: for large groups, Condorcet's result would hold under fairly general conditions. For small groups, the conditions are severe. Finally, under reasonable assumptions, P, the probability that a majority selects the" @default.
- W3123586397 created "2021-02-01" @default.
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- W3123586397 date "1992-08-01" @default.
- W3123586397 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
- W3123586397 title "The Condorcet Jury Theorem, Free Speech, and Correlated Votes" @default.
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- W3123586397 doi "https://doi.org/10.2307/2111584" @default.
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