Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W3123971388> ?p ?o ?g. }
Showing items 1 to 50 of
50
with 100 items per page.
- W3123971388 endingPage "59" @default.
- W3123971388 startingPage "1" @default.
- W3123971388 abstract "espanolEste documento presenta una herramienta para detectar la acumulacion de debilidades en las economias emergentes basada en un indice sintetico de «vulnerabilidad» frente a tres tipos diferentes de crisis (crisis soberana, cambiaria y bancaria). Para construir el indice, primero nos centramos en un enfoque de senalizacion (Auroc) que nos permite preseleccionar las variables que emiten senales adecuadas antes de que estalle una crisis. El tipo de interes interbancario a corto plazo parece ser uno de los principales indicadores adelantados para los tres tipos de crisis, mientras que la deuda externa a corto plazo tambien desempena un papel destacable. Estas variables preseleccionadas se incorporan en una estimacion logistica para obtener la probabilidad prevista de estar en un estado «vulnerable» frente a cada tipo de crisis. Estos indices, denominados SHERLOC, que es el acronimo de Signalling Heightened Emerging Risks that Lead to the Occurrence of Crises (en espanol, senalizacion de riesgos crecientes en emergentes que conducen a la ocurrencia de crisis), ofrecen mejores rendimientos que los mejores indicadores individuales en terminos de validacion dentro y fuera de la muestra. Ademas, un indice sintetico para cada tipo de crisis parece predecir mejor estados «vulnerables» que el uso de un indice agregado para todos los tipos de crisis. EnglishThis paper presents a tool to detect the accumulation of risks in emerging market economies based on a synthetic index of “vulnerability” for three different types of crisis (sovereign, currency and banking crises). To build the index we first use a signalling approach (Auroc) to preselect the variables that issue adequate signals before the blown up of a crisis. The short-term interbank rate is a leading indicator for the three different types of crises and short term external debt also plays a prominent role. These variables are then introduced in a logistic estimation to obtain the predicted probability of being in a “vulnerable” state for each type of crisis. These indexes, labelled SHERLOC, which stands for Signalling Heightened Emerging Risks that Lead to the Occurrence of Crises, outperform all best single indicators in terms of in-sample and out-of- sample validation. Additionally, a synthetic index for each type of crisis seems to predict better “vulnerable” states than the use of an aggregate index for all types of crises." @default.
- W3123971388 created "2021-02-01" @default.
- W3123971388 creator A5058964727 @default.
- W3123971388 creator A5069804535 @default.
- W3123971388 date "2019-01-01" @default.
- W3123971388 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W3123971388 title "The SHERLOC: an EWS-based index of vulnerability for emerging economies" @default.
- W3123971388 hasPublicationYear "2019" @default.
- W3123971388 type Work @default.
- W3123971388 sameAs 3123971388 @default.
- W3123971388 citedByCount "0" @default.
- W3123971388 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
- W3123971388 hasAuthorship W3123971388A5058964727 @default.
- W3123971388 hasAuthorship W3123971388A5069804535 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConcept C136264566 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConcept C136764020 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConcept C138885662 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConcept C15708023 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConcept C162324750 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConcept C17744445 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConcept C205649164 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConcept C2777382242 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConcept C38652104 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConcept C41008148 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConcept C549774020 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConcept C58640448 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConcept C95713431 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConceptScore W3123971388C136264566 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConceptScore W3123971388C136764020 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConceptScore W3123971388C138885662 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConceptScore W3123971388C15708023 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConceptScore W3123971388C162324750 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConceptScore W3123971388C17744445 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConceptScore W3123971388C205649164 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConceptScore W3123971388C2777382242 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConceptScore W3123971388C38652104 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConceptScore W3123971388C41008148 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConceptScore W3123971388C549774020 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConceptScore W3123971388C58640448 @default.
- W3123971388 hasConceptScore W3123971388C95713431 @default.
- W3123971388 hasIssue "46" @default.
- W3123971388 hasLocation W31239713881 @default.
- W3123971388 hasOpenAccess W3123971388 @default.
- W3123971388 hasPrimaryLocation W31239713881 @default.
- W3123971388 isParatext "false" @default.
- W3123971388 isRetracted "false" @default.
- W3123971388 magId "3123971388" @default.
- W3123971388 workType "article" @default.