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• W3123975677 abstract "Europe is putting in place a new system of fiscal rules following the euro area sovereign debt crisis and decades of rising government to debt-to-GDP ratios. These include the so-called “six pack” to upgrade the Stability and Growth Pact to a new Treaty incorporating the “fiscal compact”. Much of the discussion about the new rules has been procedural or theoretical. This paper shows what the rules will mean in practice under a realistic mediumterm scenario developed by the OECD. In the short term, fiscal consolidation will largely be driven by the current wave of Excessive Deficit Procedures. Only once these commitments are fulfilled will the new system of rules come into action. Although the rules are complex, the central pillar of the new fiscal rules will be the requirement to balance budgets in structural terms. These imply a tight fiscal stance over the coming years for many European countries by comparison with the performance achieved in past decades: almost all countries will have to be as disciplined as the few countries that managed to make meaningful progress in tackling high debt levels in the past. A further tightening of budgetary Medium-Term Objectives is likely in 2012, which will in many cases make the required fiscal stance even tighter. Over the very long term, the rules imply very low levels of debt. The requirements can thus not be considered to be a permanent approach. The methodology to calculate the structural balance has a number of weaknesses and discretion will be needed in implementing the rules. Les nouvelles regles budgetaires europeennes En reaction a la crise de la dette souveraine de la zone euro et apres des decennies de progression du taux d’endettement public par rapport au PIB, l’UE met en place un nouvel ensemble de regles budgetaires. Parmi ces nouvelles regles figure le train de six mesures (« six pack ») destinees a faire evoluer le Pacte de Stabilite et de Croissance vers un nouveau Traite integrant le « Pacte budgetaire ». Le debat sur ces nouvelles regles a essentiellement porte sur des questions procedurales ou theoriques. Ce document montre ce qu’impliquent concretement ces nouvelles regles, dans le cadre d’un scenario de moyen terme realiste elabore par l’OCDE. Dans un premier temps, l’assainissement budgetaire sera essentiellement motive par la vague actuelle de procedures pour deficits excessifs. Ce n’est qu’a l’issue de ces procedures que les nouvelles regles entreront en vigueur. Le point d’ancrage de ces regles complexes reside dans l’exigence d’un equilibre budgetaire structurel. Bon nombre de pays europeens devront donc, au cours des prochaines annees, adopter une politique budgetaire plus rigoureuse que lors des decennies precedentes : la quasi-totalite des pays devront se montrer aussi disciplines que ceux, peu nombreux, ayant reussi par le passe a reduire significativement leur dette publique. Un nouveau durcissement des objectifs budgetaires a moyen terme est probable en 2012, ce qui dans de nombreux cas donnera lieu a des politiques budgetaires encore plus rigoureuses. A tres long terme, les regles impliquent un tres faible niveau d’endettement. Les conditions imposees ne pourront donc pas etre considerees comme permanentes. La methodologie mise en oeuvre pour calculer le solde structurel presente certaines faiblesses et il faudra faire preuve de discernement dans la mise en oeuvre des regles budgetaires." @default.
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• W3123975677 date "2012-06-21" @default.
• W3123975677 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W3123975677 title "Europe's New Fiscal Rules" @default.
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