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- W3124126379 abstract "The U.S. business cycle expansion that started in March 1991 is the longest on record. This paper uses statistical techniques to examine whether this expansion is a onetime unique event or whether its length is a result of a change in the stability of the U.S. economy. Bayesian methods are used to estimate a common factor model that allows for structural breaks in the dynamics of a wide range of macroeconomic variables. We find strong evidence that a reduction in volatility is common to the series examined. Further, the reduction in volatility implies that future expansions will be considerably longer than the historical average." @default.
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- W3124126379 date "2001-01-01" @default.
- W3124126379 modified "2023-10-04" @default.
- W3124126379 title "Recent Changes in the U.S. Business Cycle" @default.
- W3124126379 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.923147" @default.
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