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- W3124193862 abstract "In this paper, we use cross-entropy estimation techniques to construct the underlying data base for a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the North Korean economy, starting from incomplete data, ridden with gross measurement errors. The cross-entropy estimation approach is powerful and flexible, allowing us to make full use of what information we have in whatever form. CGE modeling forces internal consistency. The end product is a model that incorporates fragmentary information in a rigorous way and allows us to examine the implications of a number of alternative scenarios including rehabilitation of flood-affected lands, liberalization of the international trade regime, and military demobilization. North Korea has been experiencing a famine. Its economy is characterized by systemic distortions and comparative disadvantage in the production of grains. As a consequence, the potential payoffs to economy-wide reforms, even defined narrowly in terms of domestic food availability, dwarf more targeted attempts to raise agricultural productivity. To many, this finding---that a famine might be better addressed by the export of manufactures than the recovery of flood-damaged lands---is a striking and counterintuitive result. Moreover, we find that if reforms were to be undertaken, the country could generate a significant additional peace dividend by partially demobilizing its enormous military. Keyword(s): Asia; North Korea; CGE models; reform; transitional economies" @default.
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- W3124193862 date "2001-09-24" @default.
- W3124193862 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W3124193862 title "Rigorous Speculation: The Collapse and Revival of the North Korean Economy" @default.
- W3124193862 hasPublicationYear "2001" @default.
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