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- W3124273752 abstract "South Korea is one of the fastest ageing countries due to longer life expectancy and lower birth rate. And sooner or later ageing population will becomes a big social problem, especially in the rural area. In order to solve this problem, the Korean government develops the farmland reverse mortgage system (FP). The key factor of FP is the farmland value forecasting. The land value is affected by the land tax, economic recession, and subprime mortgage crisis, etc. Therefore this paper estimated the effect of subprime mortgage which significantly affects the farmland value. In order to estimate the external effects of changing rates of farmland value by the subprime mortgage, this paper reviews the actuarial model of farmland pension system, the time series model (ARIMA), OLS regression, and interrupted time series model (ITSA). More specifically this study implemented the purse function model to figures out the changing rates of three key variables of farmland pension which are composed of the increasing rates of dryfield, ricefield, and interest rates. The coefficients of dummy variables of dryfield and ricefield during the subprime mortgage periods are -3.755 and -3.479 respectively. Their regression coefficients before the intervention are -0.007 and -0.004 respectively. It means that the subprime mortgage affects extremely negatively the increasing rates of farmland value. It also shows the similar results in the change of interest rates. Therefore ITSA model should be developed for the long term forecasting for considering the interruption effects, such as public policies and any other interruption." @default.
- W3124273752 created "2021-02-01" @default.
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- W3124273752 date "2015-06-01" @default.
- W3124273752 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W3124273752 title "The Estimation of Effects of Subprime Mortgage for Improving the Farmland Pension System Using Intervention Time Series Model" @default.
- W3124273752 hasPublicationYear "2015" @default.
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