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• W3124348765 abstract "This paper considers the evidence of “near-rationality” in household inflation expectations using survey data. The idea that inflation expectations are nearly-rational has been suggested by Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry (2000). Simply, at some low level of inflation, agents do not have the economic incentive to form their predictions of inflation in the rational expectations sense and therefore they simply ignore it altogether. Further, the incentive to predict inflation accurately varies from agent to agent, resulting in heterogeneous inflation expectations. The existence of such an environment for expectation formation suggests a low, but non -zero rate of inflation that minimizes the rate of unemployment. In this paper, we bring this theory to detailed survey data for the U.S. and Sweden, two countries where the existence of near-rationality has been indicated. While we find some very limited support for nearly-rational inflation expectations, the data are generally unsupportive of the proposition in the sense suggested by Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry. However, we identify a significant difference between the distribution of individual inflation responses in the U.S. compared to Sweden in the post-1992 period, despite the fact the both countries followed nearly identical inflation paths. One interpretation of this finding is that inflation targeting in Sweden has substantially increased the proportion of Swedes reporting the expectation of no inflation. The implication of this finding is that the establishment of an inflation target, in addition to maintaining a low inflation environment, might help facilitate the formation of inflation expectations by households in a way that is more conformable to nearly rational inflation expectation formation." @default.
• W3124348765 created "2021-02-01" @default.
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• W3124348765 date "2005-04-01" @default.
• W3124348765 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W3124348765 title "TESTING NEAR-RATIONALITY USING DETAILED SURVEY DATA" @default.
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