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- W3124601777 abstract "Predictability in civil and criminal sanctions is generally understood as desirable. Conversely, unpredictability is condemned as a violation of the rule of law. This paper explores predictability in sanctioning from the point of view of efficiency. It is argued that, given a constant expected monetary sanction, deterrence is increased when either the size of the sanction or the probability that it will be imposed is uncertain. This conclusion follows from earlier findings in behavioral decision research and the results of an experiment conducted specifically to examine this hypothesis. The findings suggest that, within an efficiency framework, there are virtues to uncertainty that may cast doubt on the premise that law should always strive to be as predictable as possible. INTRODUCTION 3 I. AN EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION OF THE DETERRENT EFFECTS OF UNCERTAINTY 7 A. THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS 7 B. BEHAVIORAL DECISION RESEARCH ON UNCERTAINTY ......12 C. THE EXPERIMENT 16 D. RESULTS 21 II. UNCERTAINTY IN CRIMINAL AND TORT LAW 24 A. UNCERTAINTY IN CRIMINAL LAW 27 1. Uncertainty Regarding Sanction in Criminal Law.........28 2. Uncertainty Regarding Detection in Criminal Law .......29 3. Manipulating Uncertainty in Criminal Law 30 B. UNCERTAINTY IN TORT LAW 34 1. Uncertainty Regarding Sanction in Tort Law 34 2. Uncertainty Regarding the Probability of Detection in Tort Law 36 3. Manipulating Uncertainty in Tort Law 36 C. SUMMARY 39 2003] VIRTUES OF UNCERTAINTY 3 III. OBJECTIONS 41 A. MORALITY 41 B. COST 43 C. EFFECTIVENESS 44 D. OVER/UNDER-DETERRENCE 45 E. VARIATIONS IN RISK AVERSION 46 CONCLUSION 47 APPENDIX A 48" @default.
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- W3124601777 date "2004-01-01" @default.
- W3124601777 modified "2023-09-22" @default.
- W3124601777 title "The Virtues of Uncertainty in Law: An Experimental Approach" @default.
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