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• W3124662378 abstract "We evaluate relative sea level (RSL) trajectories for North Carolina, USA, in the context of tide-gauge measurements and geological sea-level reconstructions spanning the last $mathord{sim}$11,000 years. RSL rise was fastest ($mathord{sim}$7 mm/yr) during the early Holocene and slowed over time with the end of the deglaciation. During the pre-Industrial Common Era (i.e., 0--1800 CE), RSL rise ($mathord{sim}$0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr) was driven primarily by glacio-isostatic adjustment, though dampened by tectonic uplift along the Cape Fear Arch. Ocean/atmosphere dynamics caused centennial variability of up to $mathord{sim}$0.6 mm/yr around the long-term rate. It is extremely likely (probability $P = 0.95$) that 20th century RSL rise at Sand Point, NC, (2.8 $pm$ 0.5 mm/yr) was faster than during any other century in at least 2,900 years. Projections based on a fusion of process models, statistical models, expert elicitation, and expert assessment indicate that RSL at Wilmington, NC, is very likely ($P = 0.90$) to rise by 42--132 cm between 2000 and 2100 under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 pathway. Under all emission pathways, 21st century RSL rise is very likely ($P > 0.90$) to be faster than during the 20th century. Due to RSL rise, under RCP 8.5, the current `1-in-100 year' flood is expected at Wilmington in $mathord{sim}$30 of the 50 years between 2050-2100." @default.
• W3124662378 created "2021-02-01" @default.
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• W3124662378 date "2015-06-27" @default.
• W3124662378 modified "2023-10-15" @default.
• W3124662378 title "Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina, USA" @default.
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• W3124662378 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1451-x" @default.
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