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- W3124746226 abstract "This paper uses a panel-VAR approach to estimate both the dynamic and structural macroeconomic response of resource-rich, low-income countries to global commodity price shocks. I use a Block recursive ordering, as well as a simple Choleski decomposition, to identify structural commodity price shocks for a set of developing countries. The Block recursive identi cation strategy assumes only that global macroeconomic conditions do not respond to individual low-income country conditions contemporaneously. The results suggest that a one standard deviation increase in commodity prices (around 19% on average) raises per capita income levels, government spending and investment in developing countries by 0.03%-0.05%. Commodity price shocks also result in signi cant transformation of these economies, with the share of value-added in manufacturing contracting by 0.25 percentage points; although within this, the share of value-added in agricultural manufactures, for example, expands by around 1.5 percentage points. Whilst these effects may appear small, they represent the effect of exogenous commodity price shocks that are not due to changes in aggregate demand or global nancial conditions. Taken together, these results present a more nuanced picture of the 'resource curse' in poor countries.Whilst per capital income levels are positively affected by resource booms, the potential for de-industrialisation, particularly in export oriented manufacturing sectors, does exist. The channel through which this link operates appears to be the real exchange rate, with resource booms leading to appreciation pressures. To illustrate these results, I simulate the impact of the recent oil price collapse on the Nigerian economy." @default.
- W3124746226 created "2021-02-01" @default.
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- W3124746226 date "2015-01-01" @default.
- W3124746226 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W3124746226 title "Commodity Price Shcks, Growth and Structural Transformation in Low-Income Countries" @default.
- W3124746226 hasPublicationYear "2015" @default.
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