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- W3124976785 abstract "I. INTRODUCTION The future of relations between the United States and China is murky. Many people hope that the US and China will remain friendly,1 and there is no reason to reject this possibility outright. The US and China are bound together by an economic and financial relationship that is mutually beneficial, and an outbreak of hostility would certainly harm the populations of both countries. But the relationship between the two nations is rivalrous as well as cooperative, and there are several reasons for taking a less optimistic view about its future prospects. First, the bare fact of economic cooperation has not, in the past, prevented tensions or even war. Prior to World War I, the European countries enjoyed economic interdependence that would not be matched until the end of the twentieth century; yet the mutually beneficial economic relationships did not prevent the outbreak of a devastating war, despite predictions to the contrary.2 Second, the relationship between the US and China is of a type that is particularly difficult to manage, and prone to breakdown. A strand of thinking in political science holds that war is least likely when the balance of power is static, and most likely when a status quo power (the US) is challenged by a rising power (China). The standard example is that of Germany, whose economic and military might increased rapidly after unification in 1871, resulting in expansionist tendencies that were resisted by the status quo powers-France, Great Britain, and the Soviet Union.4 The basic strategic problem for the US is that it must yield to China as China's power increases, but it should not yield too much. Conversely, China will assert its power with increasing self-confidence, but it must not assert its power too much. If either power miscalculates, war may result. Third, the evidence already suggests that China's rise will be fraught with tension. Relatively minor incidents-America's accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and China's capture of an American spy plane in 2001-provoked extreme public reactions in China.5 China's leaders have shown themselves willing to incite crowds to frenzies of nationalism in response to foreign policy challenges from Japan as well as those from the US.6 China has adopted an increasingly aggressive foreign policy among developing nations, where it has challenged the US in various ways. For example, China has forged links with the anti-American government in Venezuela7 and does business with the Sudan's genocidal government, which the US has been trying to isolate.8 And, finally, the status of Taiwan remains an explosive issue. The upshot is that the US's future relationship with China could just as likely be one of rivalry as one of partnership. But what sort of rivalry? We can imagine two types. First, the US-China rivalry could resemble the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union.9 The US and China would be the two superpowers, the rest of the world would be forced to take sides, and the conflict would be ideologically charged. second, the US-China rivalry could resemble the conflicts between the great powers during the nineteenth century. The US and China would be just two of several great powers-including Russia, India, a united Europe, and Japan-and their conflict would be over resources and security, not ideological supremacy.10 The geopolitics of the future US-China relationship has received a great deal of attention. Less attention has been directed to another topic-the role of international law in any future US-China confrontation. One might worry that America's often dismissive attitude toward international law today will come back to haunt it when, in the future, American power is no longer unchallengeable. On this view, America should bind itself and the world to strict adherence to international law and international institutions such as the United Nations and the World Court. …" @default.
- W3124976785 created "2021-02-01" @default.
- W3124976785 creator A5026084901 @default.
- W3124976785 creator A5087444821 @default.
- W3124976785 date "2006-07-01" @default.
- W3124976785 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W3124976785 title "International Law and the Rise of China" @default.
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