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• W3125012674 abstract "This paper investigates the effect of divided governments on asset prices. For identification, we use changes in the implied probability of a divided government while votes are being counted. Using high frequency data from the betting market and US overnight futures market, we estimate a 1.4% decrease in the S&P 500 futures in the election event of a divided government. Results are similar for the 2010 UK election. Further analysis shows that divided government affects expected stock returns through the mechanism of policy uncertainty." @default.
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• W3125012674 date "2015-08-01" @default.
• W3125012674 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
• W3125012674 title "Divided governments and futures prices" @default.
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• W3125012674 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.02.043" @default.
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