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- W3125013615 abstract "The simple act of selecting the strategy which appears best can generate false optimism. Among the set of available strategies, states will be more optimistic about some than others. The more a strategy’s effectiveness is exaggerated, the more likely it is to be selected. The more strategies that are available, the more likely it is that at least one will have its effectiveness exaggerated. Therefore, when picking from multiple alternatives, states are tend to select strategies about which they are falsely optimistic This effect arises from and magnifies all pre-existing sources of misperception. I call it the strategist’s curse, a close relative of the winner’s curse in auctions. Simulations suggest that the strategist’s curse can sharply increase the probability of war due to false optimism." @default.
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- W3125013615 date "2012-01-01" @default.
- W3125013615 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W3125013615 title "The Strategist's Curse: A Theory of False Optimism as a Cause of War" @default.
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