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- W3125353753 abstract "Using a gravity model, we estimate the magnitude of potential trade flows between Ireland and the five CEEC countries currently negotiating accession to the EU. We find that Irish exports were already close to their normal level in 1994, but that imports from the CEECs were still only half of their normal size. The value of estimated normal trade corresponds to 0.8 percent of Irish GNP. The actual share in 1994 was 0.5 percent. EU enlargement would raise Ireland-CEEC trade to 1.2 percent of GNP. The short-term scope for trade expansion therefore appears to be modest. Stronger potential for trade growth emerges in the long-term scenario, which assumes partial income convergence of the EU and the CEECs. According to our upper-limit estimate in the convergence scenario, the value of Irish trade with the CEECs could reach 7.7 percent of Irish GNP in 2020." @default.
- W3125353753 created "2021-02-01" @default.
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- W3125353753 date "1998-01-01" @default.
- W3125353753 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W3125353753 title "Ireland's Trading Potential with Central and Eastern European Countries: A Gravity Study" @default.
- W3125353753 hasPublicationYear "1998" @default.
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