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- W3125389107 abstract "This paper explores Knightian model uncertainty as a possible explanation of the considerable difference between estimated interest rate rules and optimal feedback descriptions of monetary policy. We focus on two types of uncertainty: (i) unstructured model uncertainty reflected in additive shock error processes that result from omitted-variable misspecifications, and (ii) structured model uncertainty, where one or more parameters are identified as the source of misspecification. For an estimated forward-looking model of the U.S. economy, we find that rules that are robust against uncertainty, the nature of which is unspecifiable, or against one-time parametric shifts, are more aggressive than the optimal linear quadratic rule. However, policies designed to protect the economy against the worst-case consequences of misspecified dynamics are less aggressive and turn out to be good approximations of the estimated rule. A possible drawback of such policies is that the losses incurred from protecting against worst-case scenarios are concentrated among the same business cycle frequencies that normally occupy the attention of policymakers." @default.
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- W3125389107 date "2000-01-01" @default.
- W3125389107 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W3125389107 title "Robust Monetary Policy With Misspecified Models: Does Model Uncertainty Always Call For Attenuated Policy?" @default.
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- W3125389107 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.231976" @default.
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