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• W3125862022 abstract "The economy of the metropolitan region centered around New York City went into a sharp decline at the end of the 1980s. That decline was linked to the national recession, which began in 1989. The economic losses in the region were more severe than in most other metropolitan areas. (The reasons are documented in an earlier paper, Drennan {1996}.) The recovery of the region's economy has been slower than in most other regions as well. In the 1989-92 decline, the region lost 624,000 jobs, and in the recovery since 1992, the region has gained only 291,000 jobs, or less than half of those lost. But the aggregate employment numbers tell only part of the story. A more interesting, and less pessimistic, story is revealed in the earnings by sector and industry. Indeed, the aggregate earnings of the region are higher now, in real terms, than they were in 1988. That reflects higher productivity and, possibly, a shift in industry composition from less productive to more productive industries. In this paper, I analyze the performance of the region's industries over the recent economic decline and recovery. In the next section, I present the taxonomy of industries employed here. That taxonomy, adopted from international trade theory, displaces economic base theory, which sorts industries into (export) and nonbasic (local). The region's economy is compared with the national economy in the context of the taxonomy developed. I then present a model of regional economic growth based on trade, specialization, and agglomeration economies. That model, which seeks to explain growth of real per capita income, has been estimated with annual data for the region. The cross-section version of that model was developed in another paper (Drennan and Lobo 1996). A second model develops the exogenous character of the traded goods and services sector for aggregate regional growth. I conclude the paper by describing recent employment trends in the two-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) industries of the region. TRADED GOODS AND SERVICES INDUSTRIES: BROAD TRENDS INTERNATIONAL TRADE THEORY AND ECONOMIC BASE THEORY International trade theory identifies two sectors in an economy: traded goods and services and nontraded goods and services. The first is subject to competition from other economies for both foreign markets and the local market. Changes in incomes, relative prices, demand, and exchange rates, both at home and abroad, affect the fortunes of the traded goods and services sector. The nontraded goods and services sector is not subject to competition from other economies and only produces for the local market. Wage levels in the nontraded goods and services sector, however, are determined by wages in the traded goods and services sector (Caves, Frankel, and Jones 1996). Economic base theory applies to regions, states, or urban areas within a nation. Again, the economy is split into two sectors: and nonbasic. The sector is engaged in competition for markets beyond the home region and is affected by changes in incomes, relative prices, and demand in other markets as well as in the home market. The nonbasic sector is not subject to competition from other economies, and its growth or decline depends entirely on the fortunes of the sector through a Keynesian-type multiplier. The crudest form of the economic base model assumes that all goods production (manufacturing and mining, as well as agriculture in a region that is not just urban) is basic, while everything else is nonbasic. Although that assumption may have been roughly right when it was first promulgated (Haig 1928), it is now silly and wrong. Private higher education in Boston, financial services in New York, tourism in Las Vegas, and even retirement communities in Fort Lauderdale are major basic industries for those cities, drawing in large revenues from nonresidents. A less crude form of the economic base model sorts industries into export and local based on location quotients. …" @default.
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• W3125862022 date "1997-02-01" @default.
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• W3125862022 title "The Performance of Metropolitan Area Industries" @default.
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