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- W3127436034 abstract "This paper develops a belief update rule under ambiguity, motivated by the maxim: in the face of new information, retain those conditional beliefs in which you are more confident, and relinquish only those in which you have less confidence. We provide a preference-based axiomatisation, drawing on the account of confidence in beliefs developed in Hill (2013). The proposed rule constitutes a general framework of which several existing rules for multiple priors (Full Bayesian, Maximum Likelihood) are special cases, but avoids the problems that these rules have with updating on complete ignorance. Moreover, it can handle surprising and null events, such as crises or reasoning in games, recovering traditional approaches, such as conditional probability systems, as special cases." @default.
- W3127436034 created "2021-02-15" @default.
- W3127436034 creator A5076360045 @default.
- W3127436034 date "2022-01-01" @default.
- W3127436034 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W3127436034 title "Updating confidence in beliefs" @default.
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- W3127436034 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105209" @default.
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