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- W3131696286 abstract "What would the Securities & Exchange Commission do if Home Depot reported as its 2020 “net income” only its revenues (not expenses), from only its best eight months, in only its best 18 states? What if we replace “Home Depot” with “CDC”? Which organization should be held to higher accounting and disclosure standards? In 2020, the CDC’s budget ballooned from $8 billion to roughly $46 billion largely in response to COVID-19 mortality figures reported by the CDC. How many deaths has COVID-19 caused? Causal analysis is always a tricky business, but pinpointing cause of death is notoriously error-prone, more so when a reported cause is used to solicit billions in funding. Indeed, the CDC emphasizes the funding connection twice on the first page of its65-page death certificate handbook.In support of its remarkable budget increase, and claiming concern that death-certificate-based counts were under-counting COVID-19 deaths, in fall 2020, the CDC began estimating “excess” deaths as a proxy for COVID-19 deaths. Is the CDC’s estimate realistic? To find out, we explore the CDC’s all-cause death data and evaluate their expected deaths model and related disclosures, using as benchmarks SEC Rule 10b-5, AICPA SAS 143 (on auditing estimates), and the fraud triangle. We find that in order to meet minimum SEC standards, which fundamentally require that statements and disclosures be not materially misleading, the CDC’s excess deaths estimate, disclosures, and presentation thereof would need to change significantly.The analysis was performed in R Studio using, primarily, the dplyr and ggplot2 packages." @default.
- W3131696286 created "2021-03-01" @default.
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- W3131696286 date "2021-01-01" @default.
- W3131696286 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W3131696286 title "Home Depot, Hogwarts & Excess Deaths at the CDC" @default.
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- W3131696286 doi "https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3775031" @default.
- W3131696286 hasPublicationYear "2021" @default.
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